Category archive: United States

IMF Downgrades US Economy Forecast

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its growth forecast for the US’ economic growth on concerns over Donald Trump presidency’s ability to make policy changes.

The IMF revised down its US gross domestic product growth predictions from 2.3 per cent to 2.1 per cent, while its global economic forecast remains unchanged at 3.5 per cent growth in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018.

The organization said it downgraded US forecast based on “the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously assumed, given the uncertainty about the timing and nature of US fiscal policy changes”.

President Trump came into office after promising increased infrastructure spending and limited taxes and regulations. However, these policies has remained stalled as the administration focuses on other matters such as healthcare regulation and disagreement within the Republican party.

The IMF also downgraded growth forecast for the UK from 2 per cent to 1.7 per cent, due to “weaker-than-expected activity” for the first three months of 2017 following Brexit.

News: Australia Tries to Save the TPP as Donald Trump Pulls the US Out of the Deal

Australia continues to push for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the accord.

The pull-out was one of Trump’s first executive orders, fulfilling his campaign promise.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said while US’ withdrawal represented a “big loss”, the deal should not be abandoned.

“It is possible that US policy could change over time on this, as it has done on other trade deals,” Turnbull said. “There is also the opportunity for the TPP to proceed without the United States. I’ve had active discussions with other leaders as recently as last night.”

Turnbull also said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose country was the only one to have ratified the deal to date, reiterated his commitment to the deal through a phone call on Monday.

Trade Minister Steve Ciobo said he had reached out to fellow signatories. “I’ve had conversations with Canada, with Mexico, with Japan, with New Zealand, with Singapore, Malaysia,” Ciobo told the ABC on Monday. “So there’s quite a number of countries that have an interest in looking to see if we can make a TPP 12 minus one work.”

Ciobo also said the deal had been designed to enable other countries to join.

“Certainly I know that Indonesia has expressed a possible interest and there would be scope for China if we were able to reformulate it to be a TPP 12 minus one for countries like Indonesia or China or indeed other countries to consider joining and to join in order to get the benefits that flow as a consequence.”

News: Sydney’s Housing Market Second Most Unaffordable in the World, New Survey Found

Sydney’s housing market has been rated as the second most expensive in the world, according to the 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2017.

Sydney, which is only topped by Hong Kong, beats other cities including San Jose (fifth most expensive) and Los Angeles (eighth).

The survey rates housing markets based on the World Bank-recommended “median multiple” principle, which divides median house price with median household income. A score of 5.1 and above is categorised as “severely unaffordable”.

10 Least Affordable Housing Markets

1            Hong Kong                       18.1

2            Sydney, NSW, Australia 12.2

3            Vancouver, Canada        11.8

4            Santa Cruz, CA, USA        11.6

5            Santa Barbara, CA, USA  11.3

6            Auckland, NZ                   10

7            Wingcaribbee, NSW, Australia    9.8

8            Tweed Heads, NSW, Australia    9.7

9            San Jose, CA, USA            9.6

10          Melbourne, VIC, Australia           9.5

The report found that 47 of Australia’s 54 markets are categorised as “seriously unaffordable” or “severely unaffordable”. The report’s co-author, Hugh Pavletich said the contrast between Australia’s land size and its housing prices indicates a “decentralisation” issue.

“State and local governments have lost the control of their costs and their capacity to finance infrastructure properly,” said Pavletich.

“Sydney house prices are about 12.2 times annual household incomes which is grossly excessive… What housing should be in normal markets is at or below three times household earnings, so Sydney is four times what it should be.”

The newly-sworn in NSW premier, Gladys Berejiklian said in her first press conference that housing affordability would be one of her policy priorities.

“I want to make sure that every average hard-working person in this state can aspire to own their own home,” said Berejiklian.

trump

Stockmarket: Trump’s Election Win Boosts Market

Donald Trump’s unexpected election to US presidency has boosted the stock market.

Following Trump’s win, economists expect an economic growth of 2.2 per cent in 2017 and 2.3 per cent in 2018, increasing from 1.5 per cent the past year.

Inflation is also predicted to rise to 2.2 per cent in 2017 and 2.4 per cent in 2018. The Federal Reserve has been struggling to increase inflation above the 2 per cent threshold since the 2008 financial crisis.

Bank of America’s stock has climbed by 17 per cent since Donald Trump won the presidential election.

These changes and estimates are underpinned by the belief that Trump’s administration will push for deregulation and provide market stimulus through infrastructure spending and cuts in tax rates.

The Bank of America has indicated that for every 100 basis points increase, the Bank will earn $5.3 billion in additional net interest income.

Market: Latest Stock Market News – US Election

It has been reported on Monday that international stock markets has risen. With the Dow Jones industrial average increased by 371.32 points, this has suggested positive news for Clinton following the FBI email investigation.

According to an article on CBC, “Investors have been anxious in recent weeks over signs that the presidential race was tightening. Stock markets hate instability, and a Clinton presidency is being interpreted as a continuation of the status quo.”

CBC also reported that “A broader market index, the S&P 500, ended Friday on its longest losing streak since 1980 — nine days in a row — on fears that Republican candidate Donald Trump may ascend to the White House.” There was confidence on Monday as the market with the S&P reaching 46.34 points, to 2,131.52

Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management has stated that “This is not a rational market. This is a reaction to less uncertainty,” “In those kinds of markets, people are jumping into stocks that they think are cheap. And what are the cheapest right now? Financials and health care.”

For Toronto’s stock market, the S&P/TSX composite index is rising by 143.20 points to just over 14,652.45.

Gold has lost $25.10 US an ounce to hit $1,279.40 US an ounce.

The December contract for light sweet crude dipped by 82 cents, closing at $44.89 US a barrel.

The Canadian dollar rose by 0.17 of a cent to finish at 74.78 cents US.